Forecasting of disaster floods in Dniester valley
نویسندگان
چکیده
In recent years, two catastrophic floods have occurred in the Carpathian region and Podillya: one on July 23–28, 2008, other June 20–24, 2020. Both caused enormous damage to environment population, which was widely reported media. To be prepared for natural disasters, you need learn predict them, that is, know what area they occur, will height of rise water when it happen. From this triad, first components already learned predict, but third has not yet. The article considers possibility a weather forecast, confirmed during flood O.M. Adamenko D.O. Zorin plotted global climate change over period Earth's history from its birth 4.567 billion years ago present. It turned out warm cold periods alternated periodically, Galactic Year (225–250 million years), there were 19, current 11 summer cycles solar activity. A total 13 orders identified, interfere form sinusoids, determining periodicity geological events. Geotectonic epochs 2nd order (50–70 years) are superimposed cyclicity 1st – galactic these Karelian, Baikal, Caledonian, Hercynian, Pacific Alpine tectonic-magmatic epochs, divided into parts 3rd (30–40 4th (10–15 million) orders. following 5 (3–5 6 (150–140 thousand 7 (10–20 associated with large Cenozoic cooling, ended Quaternary glaciation. 8 (1–4 9 (500–600 reflect changes warming cooling quarter. And then analysis events is reconstructed basis archaeological chronicle data: beginning our era XII century. Warming IX cycle continued small climatic optimum ice age (XIII XVII centuries). Since XIX century modern began clear 33-year fluctuations X cycle. 1881, instrumental observations appeared at meteorological stations hydro posts. XI (20–15–11 (5–6 XIII (3–4 appeared. Against background 33 annual climate, 1911, 1927, 1941, 1955, 1969, 1980, 1988, 2002, 2008 appeared, 2020 predicted by Zorin. Thus, possible time next flood.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Ekologì?na bezpeka ì prirodokoristuvannâ
سال: 2022
ISSN: ['2411-4049', '2616-2121']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.32347/2411-4049.2022.2.112-120